Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.(More)

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Underperforming Yahoo Stays Blissfully Under the Radar

Posted on 9/10/2010 11:48 AM

Publication: "CNNMoney"
Publication title: "Yahoo: Can this tech company be saved?"
Publication Date: 9/9/2010

KeyWords: YHOO MSFT GOOG MWW 

Brief Summary:

This gloomy article opens with the question, "Does anyone care about Yahoo anymore?" The author observes that the Web portal still has plenty of users, "but this isn't 1998 anymore." With stiff competition, such as Google (GOOG) and Facebook, dominating the fields of search and social networking, this article explains that it's not terribly shocking to see Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) trading within a hair's breadth of annual low territory. The company, under the guidance of CEO Carol Bartz, has attempted to stay relevant by striking deals with former rivals like Microsoft (MSFT) and Monster Worldwide (MWW) -- but the author concludes that "Wall Street is not going to get excited about Yahoo until it can find a way to really get sales growing again."


Contrarian Takeaway:

Along with its increasingly grim fundamental prospects, YHOO is facing some unpleasant challenges on the charts, too. Since late April, the stock has been pressured lower by double-barreled resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. Despite YHOO's recent rebound from support at the $13 level, resistance from this troublesome twosome shows no signs of giving way anytime soon.

And -- just as the author suggests -- it doesn't seem that anyone on Wall Street even cares enough about YHOO to form an opinion on the security. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 0.64, in the 52nd annual percentile, and YHOO's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) put/call volume ratio of 0.40 ranks in the 55th percentile of its annual range. Both readings point to generally tepid sentiment among options speculators.

However, YHOO's underdog status could actually be working in the stock's favor. If the company received more attention in the media, a fresh crop of bearish bettors might be tempted to place their bets on the equity's decline -- which could translate to a new wave of selling pressure for the security.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


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Can J. Crew Group, Inc. Capitalize on Low Expectations?

Posted on 9/9/2010 1:37 PM

Publication: "Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "For Fall, Retail Stocks and ‘Jeggings’ Are In"
Publication Date: 9/8/2010

KeyWords: JCG 

Brief Summary:

This Wall Street Journal article says that, "Despite reports to the contrary, the American consumer is evidently alive and well – and shopping for back-to-school clothing." The columnist is, of course, referring to last month's same-store sales figures, which handily topped analysts' expectations. More specifically, research firm Retail Metrics' index of same-store sales – which is a compilation of data from 30 U.S. retailers – rose a year-over-year 3.5% in August, indicating that consumers are keeping their purse strings looser than once thought.

Furthermore, the author opines that fall is the time of year to hunt for bargains in the retail sector, especially "with low expectations heading into the critical holiday-shopping period." One of the stocks to make the cut was J. Crew Group (JCG), which recently retreated in the wake of weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and a lower full-year forecast. As such, and considering the retailer's "strong brands" and "solid momentum," the columnist says the shares' $34 price tag looks like a bargain, "especially if consumer spending holds up."


Contrarian Takeaway:

The aforementioned Wall Street Journal author would fit in well here at Schaeffer's, considering – as many of you already know – we pride ourselves on our contrarian stance. And digging deeper into JCG's technical and sentiment backdrops reveals that the stock is, in fact, plagued by low expectations, which could translate into upward momentum on the charts.

Technically speaking, we have to admit that 2010 hasn't been kind to JCG, as indicated by the stock's year-to-date deficit of 22%. However, since rebounding off the $30 level, the security is poised to finish the week north of its 10-week moving average for the first time since late April. This trendline could now switch roles to act as support, as it ushered JCG more than 400% higher from March 2009 to early 2010.

What's more, a bona fide turnaround on the charts could shake loose some of the skeptics on the Street. According to Zacks, 11 out of 20 analysts consider JCG a "hold" or worse, leaving plenty of room for future upgrades to lure more buyers to the bandwagon. In the same vein, short interest represents nearly 12% of the equity's total float, and would take about a week to unwind at JCG's average pace of trading, pointing to the potential for a short-covering rally.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


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Can Calpine Bounce Back as Pessimism Grows?

Posted on 9/8/2010 8:23 AM

Publication: "Barron’s "
Publication title: "Calpine Shares Can Catch Fire "
Publication Date: 9/7/2010

KeyWords: CPN 

Brief Summary:

Struggling power generator Calpine (CPN) is dealing with falling demand, weakening prices, and lingering environmental concerns. However, this article contends that since the company emerged from bankruptcy protection in January 2008, the firm has lowered its debt obligations, making the security more attractive.

"I think there's a real opportunity for a near-term change in the interest costs on Calpine's debt," says Keith Goddard, president and chief executive officer of Capital Advisors. He adds, "Its asset base is very attractive." Goddard noted that virtually all of its 27,000 megawatts of electric-generating capacity comes from natural gas, rather than coal, a politically more attractive option.

In addition, the article says CPN could be an acquisition target.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Analysts are optimistic toward the shares, as Zacks reports that eight of the 12 analysts following CPN rate it a "buy" or better. This configuration leaves the security vulnerable to potential downgrades.

However, the rest of the sentiment picture is bearish. During the past month, the number of CPN shares sold short increased by 22% to 25.8 million. This accumulation of pessimistic positions accounts for 6.7% of the company's total float.

Options players also have developed a somewhat bearish bias toward the shares. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) comes in at 0.64, which is higher than 59% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 41% of the time during the past year.

Technically speaking, the shares of CPN are up more than 16% since the beginning of the year, but the security is showing signs of breaking down. CPN has not only been capped by resistance at the 14.50 level, it has fallen below its 10-week and 20-week moving averages. A continuation of this weakness could attract more bears to the equity, pressuring it lower.

Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)


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Go Big or Go Home: Sony Corporation Challenges Apple Inc.

Posted on 9/7/2010 3:06 PM

Publication: "The Wall Street Journal"
Publication title: "Sony Set to Compete with iTunes"
Publication Date: 9/2/2010

KeyWords: SNE 

Brief Summary:

Last Wednesday Sony Corporation (SNE) unveiled its new digital music service, which will be released by the end of the year. SNE has high hopes for "Music Unlimited," which is the company's response to Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) best-selling "iTunes" service -- the latter of which, by the way, now accounts for 70% of all digital music sales in the U.S. In fact, Fujio Nishida, president of Sony Europe, believes that Music Unlimited will "change the way we all enjoy our digital music."


Contrarian Takeaway:

No one can accuse SNE of lacking ambition, but really, does the company think it can compete with AAPL? The stock certainly hasn't been turning heads on the charts lately, with its descending 20-week trendline -- located just below $30 -- capping virtually all of SNE's rally attempts since April.

Yet despite its uninspiring technical performance, option players have been initiating SNE calls at breakneck pace lately, as evidenced by the stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) call/put volume ratio of 2.13, which ranks above 92% of all other readings taken during the past year.

Meanwhile, short interest surged by 23% during the past two weeks, and now accounts for nearly 23% of SNE's total available float. With call buying and short interest rising in tandem, it's possible a portion of these calls were purchased as hedges by the shorts -- and not actually bullish bets.

Music Unlimited is currently set to debut at the end of 2010 -- but that could be too late. As SNE continues to struggle on the charts, an unwinding of call volume -- whether by defeated bulls or emboldened shorts -- could exacerbate the stock's technical troubles.

Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)


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Is Cott a Good Buy?

Posted on 9/3/2010 8:27 AM

Publication: "Barron’s"
Publication title: "A Beverage Stock at a Sweet Price "
Publication Date: 9/1/2010

KeyWords: COT 

Brief Summary:

This Barron's article takes a closer look at private-label soda producer Cott Corp. (COT). The article opines that the security is relatively cheap right now. The stock is at a bargain multiple of 7.5 times earnings-per-share estimates for 2011, which is below analysts' forecast for an annual earnings growth rate of 8%. Furthermore, with consumers still cautious about their wallets, the stock could be attractive as a play on a potential double-dip recession.

Cott has also diversified recently with the acquisition of private-label juice maker Cliffstar. The move gives Cott a little more muscle with retailers looking to fill their shelves with value-laden store brands.

Stifel Nicolaus recently turned positive on Cott shares, noting the Cliffstar deal and the fact that the major brands in the sector have eased off their summer promotions. "Cott is effectively a new small cap name with the purchase of Cliffstar," Stifel analyst Mark Swartzberg wrote in a note to clients last month. "In this context, we consider one, two, or three quarters of [new company] results likely catalysts to an improved market view of value."


Contrarian Takeaway:

Sentiment is currently mixed toward the shares. According to Zacks, all five of the analysts following the security rate it a "strong buy."

However, short sellers are loading up on bearish bets. During the past month, the number of COT shares sold short increased by nearly 11% to 2.6 million. This accumulation of bearish bets accounts for almost 4% of the company's float. A continuation of this trend toward short selling could spark added downward pressure on the security.

Technically speaking, the shares of COT are down more than 13% since the beginning of the year. The stock has recently stair-stepped lower from its October peak above 9, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, the equity is encountering resistance at its 10-month moving average. Considering the security's lackluster technical performance, COT could be vulnerable to downgrades or bears adding to their short positions, resulting in a fresh wave of selling pressure.

Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com)


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Can Amazon.com Really Compete With Netflix, Inc.?

Posted on 9/2/2010 2:30 PM

Publication: "Reuters"
Publication title: "Amazon eyes subscription Web TV service"
Publication Date: 9/2/2010

KeyWords: AMZN  

Brief Summary:

This article reveals that online retailer Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) may be in the midst of developing its own subscription TV service -- you know, what Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does. While AMZN's site already has a video-on-demand section, the company is hoping to expand its online content to include video streaming as well.

While the article notes that this idea is still in the works -- with the company currently in the midst of sending out proposals to various media companies -- it also suggests that the online media business is becoming inundated, despite the fact that studios are somewhat unwilling to release newer content for online distribution. This could bode ill for AMZN down the line, as it tries to compete in a highly competitive industry.


Contrarian Takeaway:

AMZN is already fighting an uphill battle with Apple Inc. (AAPL) over e-readers, and now it's trying to compete with NFLX, the king of online media rentals. Meanwhile, the stock's technical performance of late leaves much to be desired. After peaking above $150 in April, the stock has since backpedaled to around $134, and is currently facing overhead resistance from the $135 level.

Reinforcing AMZN's current technical situation is peak call open interest of roughly 7,000 contracts at the September 145 strike, with another 10,500 calls in combined open interest at the September 134 and 140 strikes. Going forward, this hefty accumulation of call open interest could exert additional pressure on AMZN.

Meanwhile, the International Securities Exchange (ISE) reports that 1.12 calls have been bought to open for every put during the past two weeks. This ratio ranks in the upper half of its annual range, pointing to an increased appetite for bullish bets on AMZN lately.

Given the stock's technical and fundamental troubles lately, maybe AMZN should consider getting back to what made it popular in the first place: books -- hard-cover books. By trying to compete in other industries -- with sector giants, no less -- AMZN may be stretching itself too thin.

Sarah Wasserman (swasserman@sir-inc.com)


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Sizing Up the Post-Earnings Prospects for Dollar General

Posted on 9/1/2010 2:39 PM

Publication: "Barron's"
Publication title: "Dubious Value at Dollar General "
Publication Date: 8/31/2010

KeyWords: DG 

Brief Summary:

This article takes a skeptical look at Dollar General (DG) following the deep-discount retailer's latest turn in the earnings confessional. Although the company's second-quarter results were "generally good," and the author believes that "economic uncertainty still favors dollar stores," there are a few points of concern with DG in particular.

For starters, DG trades at a higher multiple than sector peer Dollar Tree (DLTR) -- and carries a heavier debt load, to boot. Plus, the author notes that DG's customer base is lower-income than some of its rivals, which places the retail chain at relatively greater risk in the event of continued economic stagnation. Overall, the article concludes that bargain-hunting investors may find more value elsewhere in the deep-discount retail sector.


Contrarian Takeaway:

DG is having a tough time on the charts lately, too. The stock has pulled back since peaking near $31.50 in early June -- and as a result, DG's 10-week and 20-week moving averages recently completed a bearish cross. The stock also tumbled through support at its 120-day moving average earlier this week, and this former technical floor could now switch roles to act as resistance.

Short sellers have been quick to try and capitalize on this technical weakness, with short interest rising by 35.6% during the most recent reporting period. These bearish bets now account for nearly 3% of DG's float, and a continuation of this shorting activity could act as a headwind for the shares going forward.

However, traders should keep an eye on the stock's progress near $26.50 before pulling the trigger on a bearish position. This region has acted as reliable support for DG, and it's now home to the equity's fledgling 10-month moving average. Unless the shares stage a decisive breach of this area, it's entirely possible that DG's recent weakness is nothing more than a short-term pullback.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


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Expectations Remain Mild as Motorola, Inc. Attempts to Reclaim Chinese Market Share

Posted on 8/31/2010 11:41 AM

Publication: "Wall Street Journal "
Publication title: "Motorola Makes China Push"
Publication Date: 8/31/2010

KeyWords: MOT GOOG AAPL 

Brief Summary:

This Wall Street Journal article highlights Motorola, Inc.'s (MOT) recent push to reclaim mobile-phone market share in China – the world's largest mobile market by number of subscribers – where it was once the market leader. According to research firm IDC, Motorola's market share in China stood at a mere 2% in the second quarter, marking a 23% decline from the same quarter of 2006.

The firm recently released a third generation of its Ming handsets, which run on Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android operating system and are "designed for Chinese users who prefer to input Chinese characters using a stylus on a touch screen." Including the new Ming cell phones, Motorola has launched 11 smartphones in China since December, and Frank Meng, president of Greater China for Motorola's mobile-devices business, estimated that more than half of Android-based phones shipped in China during the first six months of 2010 had the Motorola stamp.

However, the article notes that competition is growing increasingly stiff in China, with IDC predicting a 50% year-over-year jump in smartphone sales in 2010. One of Motorola's main competitors is Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has said it plans to open 25 stores in China by the end of 2011. In addition, Apple partner China Unicom (CHU) has said it hopes to launch the iPhone 4 in China by the end of this year, while Taiwanese handset hotshot HTC is expected to debut four handsets – including three Android phones – this fall, according to the column.


Contrarian Takeaway:

Unlike AAPL -- which has earned a whopping 52 "buy" or better analyst endorsements with not a "sell" rating in sight -- the expectations surrounding MOT are relatively low. According to Zacks, the stock harbors 13 "buy" or better ratings, compared to 15 "hold" or worse recommendations. Plus, Thomson Reuters pegs the average 12-month price target on MOT at only $8.88 – a premium of just 17% to the stock's intraday high of $7.60.

In that same vein, the short-term options crowd is also skeptically skewed toward the stock. The equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.82 ranks in the 77th annual percentile, implying that near-term traders have been more bearishly biased toward MOT only 23% of the time during the past year.

Technically speaking, the shares of MOT don't look half bad, either. The stock has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 15% during the past 60 sessions, with the security sitting comfortably atop its 60-week moving average, which has acted as support since mid-July.

Should Motorola's push to reclaim China prove more fruitful than anticipated, the Street's low expectations for the stock present a potential contrarian opportunity. A round of upgrades and/or price-target boosts, or an unwinding of pessimism in the options pits, could help to put the shares in the black for 2010.

Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com)


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Will Salesforce.com's Social Media App Bring Bears on Board?

Posted on 8/30/2010 2:38 PM

Publication: "Bloomberg Businessweek"
Publication title: "Salesforce.com Channels Facebook"
Publication Date: 8/26/2010

KeyWords: CRM 

Brief Summary:

Has Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) placed itself in the same league as social networking giants Facebook and Twitter? Bloomberg Businessweek certainly thinks so after checking out CRM's new social media application, "Chatter." According to the company, Chatter is a "real-time collaboration cloud." Or, as the author puts it, "Instead of asking 'What's on your mind?' or 'What's happening?' Chatter poses the question: 'What are you working on?'"

Bloomberg Businessweek also reports that since Chatter began rolling out in June, about 20,000 companies are now using the service, including Dell Inc. (DELL). The service is free for subscription customers, while all other users pay $15 per month. According to CRM's CEO and Chairman Marc Benioff, Chatter has been the company's "most successful software release, ever."


Contrarian Takeaway:

Given the hype surrounding Facebook and Twitter in the financial media, it is hard to view this Bloomberg Businessweek article as anything other than being very bullish on CRM. From a contrarian perspective, this level of bullish media attention often bodes ill for a company's shares. However, CRM is deserving of some praise, with the stock up more than 48% on a year-to-date basis. What's more, the company also proved on Aug. 20 that it has fundamental strength as well as technical prowess, by blowing past Wall Street's second-quarter earnings expectations and guiding higher for the third quarter and full year.

However, the stock's overall sentiment backdrop is skewed toward the bearish end of the spectrum. For instance, more than 8% of CRM's float has been sold short, while the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.20, which ranks in the 66th percentile of its annual range, indicates that puts outnumber calls among options with less than three months until expiration. Wall Street is also holding out on CRM, as 14 of the 35 analysts following the shares still rate them a "hold" or worse.

So, while bullish media coverage can have negative implications for a stock, CRM could actually benefit from the added optimism. Should more media outlets take a bullish stance on the stock, we could see the remaining bears among short sellers, options traders, and analysts capitulate to CRM's strong price action, thus helping to perpetuate the stock's rally.

Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com)


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Live Nation Could Struggle to Find a Floor

Posted on 8/27/2010 3:57 PM

Publication: "Fortune"
Publication title: "Live Nation's tin ear"
Publication Date: 8/27/2010

KeyWords: LYV 

Brief Summary:

This negative article doesn't try to spare anyone's feelings with its frank analysis of concert promoter Live Nation (LYV). After observing that the company "can't seem to make any money," the author goes on to add, "Its stock continues to drown in the shallowest pool." The article then takes a contrarian skew, with the author saying, "…it's somewhat startling that a few well-heeled investors and hedge funds have kept to their bets on a turnaround." Bargain hunters shouldn't necessarily be lured by the equity's low price, concludes the author, because LYV is facing fierce fundamental challenges -- and company management seems completely tone-deaf.


Contrarian Takeaway:

LYV is just as cheap as the article suggests, with the stock trading around $9 as of this writing -- but it seems hard to describe the shares as a "good value." The stock has slumped consistently lower since early May, with resistance from its 10-week moving average acting as a steadily descending technical ceiling. The shares dropped through the closely watched $10 level in mid-July, and this looming round-number neighborhood could now act as an additional layer of resistance.

Plus, sentiment is just as strangely complacent as the author suggests. LYV's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE) call/put volume ratio of 30.74 rests in the 94th annual percentile, revealing that traders have purchased bullish bets over bearish at a rapid pace during the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Zacks reports that the only two analysts following the stock both maintain "strong buy" ratings, leaving ample room for downgrades or fresh negative coverage in the weeks to come.

Given this combination of weak price action, a troublesome fundamental backdrop, and lingering optimism on Wall Street, it seems safe to say that LYV hasn't hit bottom just yet.

Elizabeth Harrow (eharrow@sir-inc.com)


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Search Past Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian

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"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
~ Humphrey Neill,
The Art of Contrary Thinking

The above quote has been reiterated numerous times in our publications because of its ability to succinctly capture the essence of contrarian thinking. While simple in theory, the task of capturing the prevailing sentiment can be as elusive as defining the boundaries of a cloud. The closer you get to it, the harder it is to see.

Even Humphrey Neill admitted the difficulties inherent in gauging sentiment:

"I found in my own case that it took several years, as a matter of fact, before I was able to weigh 'public opinion' with sufficient accuracy to feel reasonably confident of the contrary conclusion. It takes time to form the habit of thinking contrarily…I grant you that you will have to peruse a pile of news and comments."

Regular Schaeffer's readers are well aware that we use "hard" data such as put/call ratios and short interest to gauge the sentiment of stocks, sectors, and the market as a whole. Graphs and numbers are easy to quantify and show. What is not so easy to convey is the sentiment that is gathered from poring over numerous publications and scanning various news outlets. This information is embedded in our approach and used to make trading decisions.

At Schaeffer's, we have a team of analysts who track this "anecdotal sentiment" and pull it all together for our in-house research. The amount of information available is overwhelming and it would be impossible for one individual to stay on top of it all. Noting that Neill himself acknowledged the complexity of tracking numerous publications and the need for experience, we have launched a new column, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian."

This daily column will post summaries of current articles and provide a short take on how we view the article in a contrarian light. Some entries will give you insight into how we read media articles and how to merge small morsels into a tasty contrarian meal. Our goal is to constantly scan various media and news outlets every trading day and present some of what we feel provides a good contrarian read. We should note that not all articles will lend themselves to a contrarian interpretation. In fact, most will not.

What This is Not

First and foremost, "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" is not meant as a trade recommendation. These articles and our contrarian interpretation are but a small piece of a much larger analytical puzzle. Gathering anecdotal sentiment from a variety of sources and merging this with hard data is the hallmark of contrarian analysis. Here you get a first-hand account of how to go about this in real time.

It's also important to understand that getting a contrarian read from an article is by no means a poor reflection on the publication or its writers. A negative article on a high-flying stock may site accurate facts and be extremely logical. And more importantly, it could ultimately prove to be correct. However, experience has taught us that uptrends do not end until the final capitulation where it seems that everyone has finally given up their concerns. The market has shown time and again that short-term moves are often driven purely on emotions. By monitoring the comments made by analysts in the media, we can add this to our contrarian arsenal to gauge whether the capitulation stage has finally been reached.

At Schaeffer's, we have the years of experience and the ability to "peruse the piles of news." More importantly, we are willing to share it with you every day. It's almost like having your own personal team of contrarian analysts gathering and summarizing anecdotal information. We hope "Schaeffer's Daily Contrarian" becomes a resource you value as much as we do.

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